The Red Sox are pinning their hopes for a power surge on a young player, but is he truly ready for the immense pressure? The latest ZiPS projections paint a rather stark picture of the Red Sox's offensive might, or rather, its absence. When you dive into individual player forecasts and sort them by projected home runs, you have to scroll quite a way down, all the way to a tie for 127th place, to find the first Red Sox player. This suggests a lineup that, according to these projections, lacks a clear, dominant power hitter.
Specifically, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu are all projected to hit 18 home runs each, leading a team without a standout slugger. To put this into perspective, a rival team like the Yankees has seven different players projected to surpass 20 home runs in 2026, according to the same ZiPS data.
But here's where it gets controversial... The broader MLB landscape is filled with powerful hitters who were recently available in free agency – players the Red Sox could have potentially signed to address this very issue. Names like Kyle Schwarber (projected for 43 home runs), Pete Alonso (projected for 38 home runs), and Eugenio Suarez (projected for 35 home runs) were all within reach. Even Rafael Devers, a known power threat, is projected to hit 30 home runs, placing him at a tie for 14th on the overall list.
So, the crucial question emerges: How much weight should we give to these power projections?
If recent championship history is any guide, it matters a great deal. Examining the last 25 World Series champions (excluding the shortened 2020 season), a consistent theme emerges: most winning teams feature at least one player who hits 30 or more home runs. This isn't just about raw power; having a dominant hitter forces opposing teams to alter their pitching strategy, often leading to opportunities for other players to capitalize.
And this is the part most people miss... The exceptions to this rule are few and far between, primarily concentrated in a specific six-year window between 2010 and 2015. This era saw a unique confluence of factors, including the tail end of the steroid era and the rise of the 'launch angle' revolution. During this period, the 2015 Kansas City Royals stand out as a complete anomaly, and the San Francisco Giants teams of that era were heavily reliant on their pitching and played in notoriously pitcher-friendly ballparks. (The 2012 Giants, for instance, ranked last in home runs, though this was also during Buster Posey's MVP season, making it a debatable point.)
In essence, for the 2026 Red Sox to contend, their pitching staff needs to be as dominant as those early 2010s Giants teams, or someone on the roster must step up and deliver 30+ home runs.
While players like Wilyer Abreu (who showed promise before injuries) and Trevor Story (who has a history of big home run seasons but has struggled since leaving the hitter-friendly Coors Field) are candidates, the real hope rests on Roman Anthony. He possesses the raw talent and upside to potentially be the solution.
Anthony himself has expressed that hitting a significant number of home runs is his goal, a sentiment he shared with a matter-of-fact tone that suggests he's been intensely focused on this throughout the offseason.
Understandably, the front office is hesitant to publicly place such a heavy burden on a 21-year-old player. However, their roster construction implicitly suggests that Anthony is the key. When asked about the ZiPS projections, General Manager Craig Breslow acknowledged the need for a 30-homer hitter, and for better or worse, Roman Anthony is seen as the most likely candidate to fill that role.
Lou Merloni has also commented on Anthony's excellent physical condition, noting he's in the "best shape of his life."
So, what do you think? Is it fair to place the hopes of the Red Sox's power game on the shoulders of such a young player? Or is this a necessary gamble given the team's current situation? Share your thoughts in the comments below – we'd love to hear if you agree or disagree with this assessment!
